MULE DEER UPDATE - A BETTER LOOK AT WYOMING'S DRAW ODDS
| May 15, 2017 | Hunt Research

  • Starting with the Mule Deer release in May 2017, Toprut's Wyoming draw odds will be generated from our own computer program using the actual Wyoming applicant dataset from the state.
  • The standard drawing reports released by the state of Wyoming show total applicants, but what actually is drawn are applications.
  • Because group applications in Wyoming are very common, the total number of eligible applications "in the hat" for any hunt is less than the total number of applicants as shown on the standard reports. To calculate the actual random draw odds accurately you must look at the total number of applications.
  • Wyoming will over issue tags beyond the actual quota if a group application is pulled and there are more members in the group than tags available. So applying as a group in Wyoming does not hurt your chances in the random drawing.
  • Sometimes a group application is the first one pulled for a particular hunt and draw pool, and that one single group application will fill the entire random quota for that hunt. In other words, one big group can sometimes "block" all other applications from being considered.
  • Our draw simulation program factors in real world group applications and we are now able to more accurately determine the actual random draw odds.
  • And because we now have the total (average) number of bonus points per application, we can also more accurately report the minimum number of preference points required to draw for nonresidents. For instance, instead of < 4 points required as reported by the standard state reports, we are able to determine what the actual points required value was (3.8 for instance).

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST