To date, Arizona has been the most difficult state we have worked with in respect to acquiring big game draw details. We've spoken with many fine folks at the Arizona Department of Game and Fish, on numerous occasions. Ultimately we were able to obtain enough supplemental draw information to accurately produce random (1/2 Pass) draw odds in Arizona.
Arizona's draw process is somewhat unique in that there are no guaranteed quotas for nonresidents. In general, they do make available "up to" 10% of all tags to nonresident applicants but they do not separate applicants by residency status when conducting the draw. As such, the odds you will draw a tag in the random (1/2 Pass) drawing can be significantly influenced by the distribution of resident vs. nonresident demand for a given hunt.
New for the 2018 application season, we are using a computer simulation to perform and consider all aspects of the Arizona drawing process using the applicant data for each draw year. We simulate each draw thousands of times in order to determine the true random (1/2 Pass) draw odds. Our draw simulation considers all applicants and their group bonus point totals, the distribution of resident/nonresident demand, quota maximums, group applications and application hunt choice orders.
In addition, we have also added draw information for Mule Deer, Coues Deer and Desert Sheep for 2018. Good luck in the draws!
