With the peak of another hunting season behind us it's time to look forward to new hunting adventures awaiting for 2019. We've been busy the last couple of months and have made some important changes to Toprut.
Today we updated our data to include all of the latest odds and application information from the 2018 draws. This update is inclusive of all 8 states that we currently publish and is complete for all of our species.
Prior to this year we did periodic state by state releases that coincided with the start of each state's application period. This year we are excited to have all of the core research data available well before the new year so that we can focus our efforts on additions and improvements in the weeks to follow.
In addition there were also some significant improvements made for 2019 in some key areas:
A more complete data set always translates to a clearer picture and more accurate results. And this year we obtained more data from Arizona than in any prior year. A lot more. As a result our Arizona information has taken another step ahead and is the most complete and comprehensive look at the Arizona draw odds that's ever been available. Our draw simulation considers all application group bonus point totals, the distribution of resident/nonresident demand, "up to" 10% nonresident caps, quota maximums and application hunt choice orders for every single individual application. In states like Arizona where multiple hunt choices are considered before moving to the next applicant, 1st and 2nd hunt choices in aggregrate combination really impact drawing odds. SIGNIFICANTLY. We've taken the extra steps to make sure you've got the best information available as you research for your '19 applications.
After several requests for this from the community, in July of 2018 we added the 3 exotic species to New Mexico: Barbary Sheep, Ibex and Oryx. We will also be adding Bighorn Sheep in the coming weeks as the New Mexico application period approaches.
The Moose, Sheep and Mountain Goat drawing in Colorado is unique from any other: the weighted point system. For 2019 we've updated our processing for these species to more accurately reflect the odds for those hunts that are "easier" to draw. Additionally we have updated the list view for moose, sheep and goat to show odds based on the specific # of weighted points selected in the dropdown (as opposed to a fixed weighted point level).
With Utah's bonus point drawing system it has always been possible to calculate drawing odds very accurately without doing a full computer drawing simulation. But by doing so you essentially need to ignore group applications and also the nonresident drawing order for limited entry tags. Although nonresidents can apply for multiple limited entry tags across species, they are only ever allowed to draw one in a given year. To encapsulate these 2 considerations into our results we went to a full simulation in Utah when calculating draw odds. The resulting difference in actual odds is only very slight in most cases but none the less real.
The other big change for 2019 is the introduction of our Peak Membership. For the first time since the launch of Toprut in January of 2016 we will have an annual subscription offering that provides exclusive access to the latest and most relevant information currently available.
This move is necessary in order to afford us the opportunity to build upon the work we have already done and to pursue additional ideas and features that will continue to drive Toprut forward in the years to come.
We've always been advocates for quality, accessible information. For this reason we will continue to provide open access to prior years drawing information and our Google Earth kml downloads.
|AZ ||Jan. 11, '19||Feb. 12, '19||Mid March|
|AZ ||Early May||Mid June||Mid July|
|CO||Mar. 1, '19||Apr. 2, '19||June 3|
|CO ||May 3|
|CO [3b]||Aug. 8, '19|
|ID ||Apr. 1||Apr. 30||Early June|
|ID ||May 1||June 5||Late June|
|MT ||Feb. 19, '19||Mar. 15, '19||~Apr. 24|
|MT ||End of Mar.||May 1, '19||~Jun. 11|
|MT ||End of Mar.||Jun. 1, '19||~Jul. 30|
|MT ||End of Mar.||Jun. 1, '19||~Jul. 16|
|NV||Mar. 18||Apr. 29, '19||May 24|
|NM||Jan. 16, '19||Mar. 20, '19||Apr. 24|
|OR||Early Feb.||May 15, '18||Jun. 20|
|UT||Jan. 31, '19||Mar. 7, '19||May 31|
|WY ||Jan. 2, '19||Jan. 31, '19||Feb. 21|
|WY ||Jan. 2, '19||Feb. 28, '19||May 9|
|WY ||Feb. 1, '19||Feb. 28, '19||May 9|
|WY ||Jan. 2, '19||May 31, '19||June 20|